Jidong Cement (000401) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Q4 Sales Increased, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area Increases Demand Potential
This report reads: The company announced its annual report that Q4 sales have increased significantly, confirming the strong regional demand. We are optimistic about the demand potential brought about by the construction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area and maintain an “overweight” rating.
Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.
Realized revenue of 308 in 2018.
4.9 billion, an increase of 22.
57%; net profit attributable to mother 14.
8.3 billion, an increase of 194 in ten years.
09%, eps 1.
10 yuan, in line with market expectations.
We are optimistic about the demand potential brought by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area and raised EPS to 1 in 2019-2020.
74) yuan, plus EPS 2 for 2021.
81 yuan, based on a 19-year average 12-year estimate of a comparable company, raising the target price to 21.
The sales growth rate of Q4 increased, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area has a remarkable elasticity.
In 18 years, the sales volume of cement clinker was 9664, which increased by 5.
6%, sales growth in the fourth quarter increased significantly to 11%.
At the same time, we judge that the demand for cement in North China will maintain a good growth trend from January 苏州桑拿网 to February 2019, and continue to gradually reach 0 nationwide.
Recently, the planning of Xiong’an New District has been approved. The construction of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area is expected to increase, and the elasticity of regional demand will continue to lead the country.
Our 18-year average ex-factory price of feed is about 297 yuan / ton, an increase of 55 yuan / ton; gross profit per ton is about 91 yuan / ton, an increase of 19 yuan / ton; net profit per ton is about 24 yuan / ton, which can increase 18 yuan / ton.
The average factory price of Q4 is about 346 yuan / ton, gross profit per ton is about 104 yuan / ton, and net profit per ton is about 20 yuan / ton.
Net cash flow from operations increased significantly, and the debt ratio continued to decline.
18 years of operating net cash flow of the company 65.
3.1 billion, a significant increase of 38 previously.
2.9 billion, far more than net profit, much more than expected.
The asset interest rate dropped significantly.
97 up to 61.
56%, we think that the company’s operating quality can continue to improve, and the subsequent rejection rate level is expected to continue to decline.
With the improvement of the management mechanism, the company’s short-term three-rate rate19.
29%, a significant decline of 8 per year.
15 approx. And still noticeably falling space.
Risk warning: raw material prices rise, macroeconomic decline